South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis


The South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA) is a national research centre, established under the Centre of Excellence programme of the Department of Science and Technology and the National Research Foundation, South Africa, and is hosted by the University of Stellenbosch.

SACEMA focuses on research in quantitative modelling of disease, with a strong focus on relevance to public health policy. Technically, much of this work is on the interface between what are usually known as biostatistical and dynamical systems methods. Currently, research is largely on issues pertaining to HIV, tuberculosis and malaria, although not to the exclusion of other epidemiological problems.

SACEMA has developed crucial methodologies for assay-based incidence estimation, and also played a key role in producing a guide on how best to use assays/algorithms for the estimation of HIV incidence, working within the World Health Organisation (WHO) Incidence Assays Working Group. SACEMA will further develop the relevant theory and computational tools for the analysis of the data produced by CEPHIA, and for the subsequent implementation of biomarker-based incidence surveillance.