Incidence Inference Based on Prevalence Measured at Multiple Time Points

Internal consistency of basic population renewal (i.e. aging with a hazard of death) constrains prevalence, mortality and incidence. This simple idea has been used, with varying degrees of sophistication, to utilise prevalence and mortality data to estimate HIV incidence. SACEMA is interested in refining and systematising these concepts, and exploring appropriate ways to analyse prevalence and mortality data.

Some of the key references in this regard are listed below.

  • Podgor MJ, Leske MC. Estimating incidence from age-specific prevalence for irreversible diseases with differential mortality. Stat Med 1986; 5(6):573-8.
  • Gregson S, Donnelly CA, Parker CG, Anderson RM. Demographic approaches to the estimation of incidence of HIV-1 infection among adults from age-specific prevalence data in stable endemic conditions. AIDS 1996; 10(14):1689-97.
  • Williams B, Gouws E, Wilkinson D, Karim SA. Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations. Stat Med 2001; 20(13):2003-16.
  • Hallett TB, Zaba B, Todd J, Lopman B, Mwita W, Birari S, Gregson S, Boerma T, on behalf of the ALPHA network. Estimating incidence from prevalence in generalised HIV epidemics: methods and validation. PLoS Med 2008; 5(4): e80.
  • Balasubramanian R and Lagakos SW. Estimating HIV incidence based on combined prevalence testing. Biometrics 2010; 66(1):1-10.